House flipping in Texas: 70% rule, holding costs, and what kills deals

Flipping in Texas: the 70% rule applied here

The 70% rule says your maximum allowable offer (MAO) is 70% of ARV minus rehab. It's a smoke test, not a precise formula, but it works as a quick filter.

In Houston, where ARVs typically sit in the $240k-$320k range, that math runs like this:

ARV: $320,000 (high end of comps)
70% of ARV: $224,000
Less $30k typical rehab: MAO = ~$194,000

If you can't buy under that, the math doesn't work. Use the fix-and-flip calculator for your specific deal.

What Texas flippers actually deal with

Property taxes during holding: 1.74% statewide average. On a $240,000 purchase held for 6 months, that's $2,088 in taxes alone - not the largest line item but rarely budgeted by new flippers.

Permit + inspection cycles: varies by municipality but generally 2-6 weeks for typical scope (kitchen/bath, HVAC, electrical updates). Pulling permits matters - unpermitted work tanks ARV when the buyer's inspector finds it.

Holding costs to budget:

Mortgage/hard money interest: 10-12% APR on hard money is standard now. On $240,000 that's $2,200-2,400/mo
Insurance (vacant + builder's risk): $150-300/mo
Utilities + lawn care: $200-400/mo
Total: figure $1,200-1,800/mo holding cost on a typical Houston flip

A 6-month flip = $7-11k just in carry. That comes out of your spread.

What kills Texas flips

No state income tax, but property taxes near 2% kill cash flow projections that assume the national 1% average. Insurance premiums in coastal/hail zones have spiked - run conservative numbers.

The common Texas-specific deal-killers:

Underestimating insurance during the rehab period. Coastal/windstorm zones have made vacant-home insurance expensive and sometimes unavailable. Get a quote BEFORE you close.
Comping to the wrong street. Houston's neighborhoods can flip from B-class to C-class across a 4-block stretch. Use comps within 0.5 miles and don't trust auto-valuation models on transitional blocks.
Rehab scope creep. Lock the scope before close, get fixed-bid contracts where possible. Cost overruns of 20-30% are common and they eat the spread fast.

The actual go/no-go targets

For a flip in Texas to actually work:

Profit margin: $25-40k minimum on a $200-350k ARV flip. Below $25k and one bad week of carry kills it.
Annualized ROI: 25%+ on cash-in. Lower than that and you're better off in a buy-and-hold.
Days on market estimate: <90 from listing. Houston has slower DOM than it did in 2021-22; price aggressively to move.
Exit price as % of comps: 95-100% of the top comp, NOT the average. Don't expect to be the #1 comp on the street.

One advantage of flipping in Texas - if you change your mind and decide to hold + rent, the landlord-friendly law gives you a cleaner exit path on a problem tenant later.

When Texas is + isn't the right state for flipping

Texas's lower-priced metros (San Antonio) still have flip-friendly margins because the absolute dollar spread on a $220,000 purchase + rehab is meaningful relative to the carry costs.

Run your specific deal through the fix-and-flip calculator - holding cost reality and the 70% rule sanity check will tell you in 2 minutes whether to drive out for the walk-through or not.